Open Travel Guide
Weather in Mexico State

Mexico State Weather & Climate Guide 2026

The weather calendar for Mexico State: season by season, with the trade-offs each month brings.

Mexico State (Estado de México) is the country's most populous state, a horseshoe-shaped territory wrapped around Mexico City that ranges from the dense urban sprawl of the Toluca and Mexico City metropolitan zones to pine forests, volcanoes, colonial silver and monastery towns, and monarch butterfly wintering grounds. It holds more of the Teotihuacan archaeological site than Mexico City does, along with the lakeside town of Valle de Bravo, the ceramics town of Metepec, and the state capital, Toluca de Lerdo, Mexico's highest state capital.

Mexico State sits almost entirely at high elevation on Mexico's central plateau, with the state capital Toluca de Lerdo at roughly 2,680 meters (8,790 feet) -- one of the highest-elevation state capitals in the country -- and the extinct Nevado de Toluca volcano rising to nearly 4,680 meters at its crater rim. This altitude gives the whole state a cool, temperate highland climate rather than the tropical heat found on Mexico's coasts: daytime temperatures are mild to cool year-round, nights are consistently cool to cold, and light frost is possible on winter mornings in Toluca and around Nevado de Toluca. Valle de Bravo, at a somewhat lower elevation around 1,800-1,950 meters, is noticeably milder and is known for warm, sunny days and cool evenings. The state follows a clear dry season from November through March/April and a wet season from June through September, with afternoon thunderstorms common in summer.

Best time to visit

Recommendation

Best: Year-round

Avoid: None

Month-by-month weather

Typical conditions throughout the year.

January

13°C/55°F

Dry, sunny, and cold at night in Toluca, with occasional frost on clear mornings; Valle de Bravo is noticeably milder

February

14°C/57°F

Similar to January - dry and sunny by day, still cold overnight in Toluca; one of the driest months across the state

March

16°C/61°F

Warming and still dry, with pleasant daytime temperatures and less overnight cold than deep winter

April

17°C/63°F

The warmest month of the year on average, dry with building haze late in the month as the rainy season approaches

May

17°C/63°F

Warm and mostly dry with occasional early-season showers appearing toward month's end

June

16°C/61°F

Rainy season begins with regular afternoon storms, though mornings often remain clear and mild

July

15°C/59°F

Consistent afternoon rains with cooler temperatures than the dry season; landscapes turn lush and green

August

15°C/59°F

Continued regular rainfall with mild days; one of the wetter months but rarely disruptive to morning plans

September

15°C/59°F

Still within the rainy season with frequent afternoon storms, tapering slightly by month's end

October

14°C/57°F

Rains begin tapering off noticeably, with more dry days appearing as the month progresses

November

13°C/55°F

The dry season firmly returns with clear skies by day and cooling nights, a strong transitional month

December

13°C/55°F

Dry and sunny by day with cold nights and occasional frost in Toluca - festive posadas and holiday markets in Toluca and Metepec

The seasons

What to expect in each part of the year.

Season

Spring

Months: Mar-May

Warm, dry, and the warmest stretch of the year, with Toluca days reaching the low-to-mid 20s degrees C and Valle de Bravo climbing into the high 20s. Dust and haze can build toward the end of the dry season before the rains arrive.

Season

Summer

Months: Jun-Sep

The wet season, with regular afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the state, though mornings are often clear. Temperatures stay mild thanks to the altitude, rarely feeling hot even at midday.

Season

Fall

Months: Oct-Nov

Rains taper off through October, and by November the dry season firmly sets in, bringing clear skies and cooling nights across Toluca, Valle de Bravo, and the surrounding highlands.

Season

Winter

Months: Dec-Feb

The driest and coldest season: clear, sunny days but noticeably cold mornings and nights in Toluca, with occasional light frost; Valle de Bravo stays milder thanks to its lower elevation and lakeside setting.

Crowds & peak times

When to expect tourists and when to avoid them.

High Season
Weekends year-round in Valle de Bravo (a popular Mexico City getaway) plus Semana Santa (Easter week) and the Dec-Apr dry season across the state's main attractions
Shoulder Season
Weekday visits and Oct-Nov offer comfortable, largely dry weather with lighter crowds than weekend and holiday peaks
Low Season
Weekday visits during the Jun-Sep rainy season see the fewest visitors, though mornings are often clear enough for sightseeing
Items
  • Period
    Weekends and Semana Santa
    Level
    High - Mexico City day-trip and getaway traffic
  • Period
    Oct-Nov weekdays
    Level
    Moderate - comfortable, drying weather with lighter crowds
  • Period
    Jun-Sep weekdays
    Level
    Low - rainy season afternoons, clearer mornings

Major events & festivals

Time your visit around what matters.

Event

Semana Santa (Holy Week)

Valle de Bravo and Ixtapan de la Sal see the year's heaviest domestic tourism during Holy Week, with religious processions also held in Toluca and Metepec

Event

Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead)

Toluca and surrounding towns hold traditional altars, cemetery visits, and cultural events; nearby Mexico City's larger Day of the Dead festivities draw additional regional visitors

Event

Toluca and Metepec Posadas and Holiday Markets

Toluca's downtown and Metepec's plaza fill with traditional posadas processions, holiday markets, and festive lighting through the colonial centers in the run-up to Christmas

Event

Valle de Bravo Paragliding Season

Valle de Bravo's thermal winds and lake setting make it one of Latin America's leading paragliding destinations, with the most reliable flying conditions during the dry season

Event

Mexican Independence Day

Toluca holds the traditional Grito de Independencia ceremony, fireworks, and civic celebrations in its main plaza

Event

Feria del Elote y Feria Regional events

Several Mexico State towns hold agricultural and cultural fairs celebrating regional corn harvests and local traditions during the rainy season